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Avalanche (AVAX) Price Holds Key Support, But Analyst Warns Rally Could Be At Risk
After a strong price performance over the past month, driven by growing interest in the Avalanche ecosystem, AVAX now faces a key resistance area that could delay its long-awaited rally. Related Reading: Solana DATs Arrive In Australia: Fitell Corporation Announces $100M SOL Treasury Strategy Institutional Momentum Fuels Avalanche Price On Wednesday, Avalanche continued its recovery from the start-of-week pullback and is currently retesting the $34 area as support. The cryptocurrency recently fell to the $29 level, but quickly bounced toward a seven-month high of $36.1 on Tuesday, fueled by institutional interest in the ecosystem. AgriFORCE Growing Systems recently announced its rebrand to a crypto treasury company under the name AVAX One, marking the first Nasdaq-listed entity focused on Avalanche. The company, supported by Hivemind Capital and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, aims to raise $550 million to accumulate the cryptocurrency. Notably, the Avalanche Foundation, the nonprofit behind the project, also revealed it was seeking to raise $1 billion to establish two US-based crypto treasury vehicles. Last week, South Korean crypto custodian BDACS launched KRW1, the countryâs first Korean wonâpegged stablecoin, on Avalanche. Previously, Ava Labs secured a strategic partnership with Toyota Blockchain Lab to build a blockchain-based system, the Mobility Open Network (MON), designed to pave the road for new emerging use cases such as robotaxi fleets. AVAX Monthly Close Holds Rallyâs Key Analyst Rekt Capital noted that the cryptocurrency has had a strong three-month rally within its Macro Wedge pattern but also cautioned that thereâs âfurther work to be doneâ for a bullish trend continuation. The cryptocurrency has seen a 43% increase in the monthly timeframe, turning the $30 level into support two weeks ago. Since then, the AVAX price has attempted to reclaim the $35 resistance twice, but failed to sustain the breakout. Avalanche has been trading inside a Macro wedge pattern since the start of 2024, with the price steadily hovering between the formationâs upper and lower boundaries. The recent rally has sent the price toward the patternâs resistance zone, with the breakout level sitting around the $38.40 mark. According to the analysis, AVAXâs next crucial step is to close September above the Macro Downtrend and have a post-breakout retest of this level as support. A monthly close above this area would âopen the path toward repeating bullish history similar to mid-2021 and early 2024.â Related Reading: Analyst Says Ethereum Bounce Is Imminent As BitMine Continues To Accumulate Failing to secure a monthly close above the $38.40 area could see Avalanche up for a retest of the $29-$30 support, further risking a drop toward the monthly opening of $23.6. To target the Macro Wedge resistance, the cryptocurrency still must reclaim the $35-$36 zone, where the next major sell wall is located. Despite the warning, the analyst detailed that a retest of the support region could âextend base-building further into Q4, ultimately enabling a more sustainable breakout attempt later.â As of this writing, AVAX is trading at $33.75, a 1% decline in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
All-Time Highs For Gold, S&P500; Crypto Stands Alone In The Red â Whatâs The Root Cause?
Crypto markets have recently faced renewed challenges, despite a brief resurgence following the US Federal Reserveâs (Fed) rate cut that initially propelled Bitcoin (BTC) back toward the $120,000 mark. This week, however, Bitcoin has dropped to the lower end of its established consolidation range, fluctuating between $110,000 and $115,000. Analysts from The Bull Theory have pinpointed several factors contributing to this downturn. How Fed Policies And QT Are Impacting Crypto One of the primary reasons for the current situation is the ongoing capital flow favoring traditional assets. In the wake of rate cuts, institutional investors tend to channel their funds into stocks and gold first, as these are considered high-liquidity assets with a proven track record. In contrast, cryptocurrencies, particularly altcoins, often find themselves at the end of the liquidity pipeline. They typically see price increases only when risk appetite broadens significantly among investors. Related Reading: Tether Targets $500 Billion Valuation In New Equity Offering Amid US Expansion Plans Additionally, liquidity remains tight in the crypto space, despite the Fedâs recent actions. While the central bank cut rates in September, other variables are restricting the flow of capital into cryptocurrencies. Quantitative tightening (QT) is still being implemented, with the Fed actively reducing its balance sheet. Moreover, the US Treasury is absorbing liquidity through the replenishment of the Treasury General Account (TGA), and money market funds are currently holding over $7.7 trillion in cash that remains largely idle. This lack of liquidity means that any spillover effect into the crypto market will be limited, resulting in a slower rotation of capital into digital assets. Cyclical Trends Suggest Potential Rebound The macroeconomic patterns observed in September 2024 are also reemerging. Last year, following a rate cut, Bitcoin surged past $60,000, while Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins enjoyed significant gains. However, this was followed by a sharp decline, with Bitcoin dropping 11% and Ethereum experiencing an even steeper fall. In a similar vein, this September has seen Bitcoin hover around $112,000 after briefly touching $118,000, while Ethereum has slipped from $4,600 to approximately $4.1,00. This cyclical pattern suggests that crypto may be primed for a rebound, but only after a period of consolidation and confirmation. Moreover, the impending expiry of options contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum is adding another layer of volatility to the market. Stablecoin Movement And Institutional Inflows Another factor impacting the market is the supply and velocity of stablecoins. While the total supply of stablecoins has surged from $204 billion in January to $308 billion in Septemberâan all-time highâthe velocity of these assets is not keeping pace. The analysts have identified that much of this capital remains inactive, either sitting idle, bridged, or utilized off-exchange. Until stablecoin velocity increases, the price impact on cryptocurrencies is likely to remain subdued. Related Reading: Ex-Binance CEO CZ Criticizes FT Report On YZi Labs, Calls It A âNegative Narrativeâ Looking ahead, historical trends suggest that although crypto may be lagging in the short term, they often follow traditional assets with significant gains once the market stabilizes. In the aftermath of all-time highs in equity markets, Bitcoin has previously averaged a 12% increase within 30 days and a remarkable 35% over 90 days. Notably, following the Nasdaqâs all-time highs, Bitcoin surged by an impressive 46% in the same 90-day timeframe. For crypto markets to regain their momentum, active movement of stablecoins is essential, along with a cooling off of derivatives trading and substantial purchases from institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Avalanche (AVAX) Price Holds Key Support, But Analyst Warns Rally Could Be At Risk
After a strong price performance over the past month, driven by growing interest in the Avalanche ecosystem, AVAX now faces a key resistance area that could delay its long-awaited rally. Related Reading: Solana DATs Arrive In Australia: Fitell Corporation Announces $100M SOL Treasury Strategy Institutional Momentum Fuels Avalanche Price On Wednesday, Avalanche continued its recovery from the start-of-week pullback and is currently retesting the $34 area as support. The cryptocurrency recently fell to the $29 level, but quickly bounced toward a seven-month high of $36.1 on Tuesday, fueled by institutional interest in the ecosystem. AgriFORCE Growing Systems recently announced its rebrand to a crypto treasury company under the name AVAX One, marking the first Nasdaq-listed entity focused on Avalanche. The company, supported by Hivemind Capital and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, aims to raise $550 million to accumulate the cryptocurrency. Notably, the Avalanche Foundation, the nonprofit behind the project, also revealed it was seeking to raise $1 billion to establish two US-based crypto treasury vehicles. Last week, South Korean crypto custodian BDACS launched KRW1, the countryâs first Korean wonâpegged stablecoin, on Avalanche. Previously, Ava Labs secured a strategic partnership with Toyota Blockchain Lab to build a blockchain-based system, the Mobility Open Network (MON), designed to pave the road for new emerging use cases such as robotaxi fleets. AVAX Monthly Close Holds Rallyâs Key Analyst Rekt Capital noted that the cryptocurrency has had a strong three-month rally within its Macro Wedge pattern but also cautioned that thereâs âfurther work to be doneâ for a bullish trend continuation. The cryptocurrency has seen a 43% increase in the monthly timeframe, turning the $30 level into support two weeks ago. Since then, the AVAX price has attempted to reclaim the $35 resistance twice, but failed to sustain the breakout. Avalanche has been trading inside a Macro wedge pattern since the start of 2024, with the price steadily hovering between the formationâs upper and lower boundaries. The recent rally has sent the price toward the patternâs resistance zone, with the breakout level sitting around the $38.40 mark. According to the analysis, AVAXâs next crucial step is to close September above the Macro Downtrend and have a post-breakout retest of this level as support. A monthly close above this area would âopen the path toward repeating bullish history similar to mid-2021 and early 2024.â Related Reading: Analyst Says Ethereum Bounce Is Imminent As BitMine Continues To Accumulate Failing to secure a monthly close above the $38.40 area could see Avalanche up for a retest of the $29-$30 support, further risking a drop toward the monthly opening of $23.6. To target the Macro Wedge resistance, the cryptocurrency still must reclaim the $35-$36 zone, where the next major sell wall is located. Despite the warning, the analyst detailed that a retest of the support region could âextend base-building further into Q4, ultimately enabling a more sustainable breakout attempt later.â As of this writing, AVAX is trading at $33.75, a 1% decline in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
All-Time Highs For Gold, S&P500; Crypto Stands Alone In The Red â Whatâs The Root Cause?
Crypto markets have recently faced renewed challenges, despite a brief resurgence following the US Federal Reserveâs (Fed) rate cut that initially propelled Bitcoin (BTC) back toward the $120,000 mark. This week, however, Bitcoin has dropped to the lower end of its established consolidation range, fluctuating between $110,000 and $115,000. Analysts from The Bull Theory have pinpointed several factors contributing to this downturn. How Fed Policies And QT Are Impacting Crypto One of the primary reasons for the current situation is the ongoing capital flow favoring traditional assets. In the wake of rate cuts, institutional investors tend to channel their funds into stocks and gold first, as these are considered high-liquidity assets with a proven track record. In contrast, cryptocurrencies, particularly altcoins, often find themselves at the end of the liquidity pipeline. They typically see price increases only when risk appetite broadens significantly among investors. Related Reading: Tether Targets $500 Billion Valuation In New Equity Offering Amid US Expansion Plans Additionally, liquidity remains tight in the crypto space, despite the Fedâs recent actions. While the central bank cut rates in September, other variables are restricting the flow of capital into cryptocurrencies. Quantitative tightening (QT) is still being implemented, with the Fed actively reducing its balance sheet. Moreover, the US Treasury is absorbing liquidity through the replenishment of the Treasury General Account (TGA), and money market funds are currently holding over $7.7 trillion in cash that remains largely idle. This lack of liquidity means that any spillover effect into the crypto market will be limited, resulting in a slower rotation of capital into digital assets. Cyclical Trends Suggest Potential Rebound The macroeconomic patterns observed in September 2024 are also reemerging. Last year, following a rate cut, Bitcoin surged past $60,000, while Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins enjoyed significant gains. However, this was followed by a sharp decline, with Bitcoin dropping 11% and Ethereum experiencing an even steeper fall. In a similar vein, this September has seen Bitcoin hover around $112,000 after briefly touching $118,000, while Ethereum has slipped from $4,600 to approximately $4.1,00. This cyclical pattern suggests that crypto may be primed for a rebound, but only after a period of consolidation and confirmation. Moreover, the impending expiry of options contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum is adding another layer of volatility to the market. Stablecoin Movement And Institutional Inflows Another factor impacting the market is the supply and velocity of stablecoins. While the total supply of stablecoins has surged from $204 billion in January to $308 billion in Septemberâan all-time highâthe velocity of these assets is not keeping pace. The analysts have identified that much of this capital remains inactive, either sitting idle, bridged, or utilized off-exchange. Until stablecoin velocity increases, the price impact on cryptocurrencies is likely to remain subdued. Related Reading: Ex-Binance CEO CZ Criticizes FT Report On YZi Labs, Calls It A âNegative Narrativeâ Looking ahead, historical trends suggest that although crypto may be lagging in the short term, they often follow traditional assets with significant gains once the market stabilizes. In the aftermath of all-time highs in equity markets, Bitcoin has previously averaged a 12% increase within 30 days and a remarkable 35% over 90 days. Notably, following the Nasdaqâs all-time highs, Bitcoin surged by an impressive 46% in the same 90-day timeframe. For crypto markets to regain their momentum, active movement of stablecoins is essential, along with a cooling off of derivatives trading and substantial purchases from institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com