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Newbie Bitcoin Whales Now Control 44% Of Realized Cap, Highest Ever
On-chain data shows the short-term holder Bitcoin whales have recently increased their Realized Cap share to the highest level ever. Bitcoin Is Currently Being Dominated By New Capital In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the share of the Bitcoin whale Realized Cap held by the short-term holders. The Realized Cap here is an on-chain indicator that measures, in short, the total amount of capital that the BTC investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. Changes in this metric reflect the incoming or outgoing of capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retests STH Cost Basis Again: Is This Where Support Flips? In the context of the current topic, the Realized Cap of only a portion of holders is of interest: the whales. These are the entities carrying more than 1,000 BTC (about $111.4 million) in their balance. Whales can be further broken down into cohorts on the basis of holding time. Whale-sized holders who bought their coins within the past 155 days are known as the short-term holder (STH) or new whales. Similarly, those who have a holding time higher than this cutoff are called the long-term holder (LTH) or old whales. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows how the Bitcoin Realized Cap dominance of these two groups has changed over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, new whales have rapidly gained ground in the Bitcoin Realized Cap recently and hit a dominance of 44%. The STH whales represent the big-money capital that has come into the coin over the last 155 days. Thus, it would appear that 44% of the capital stored on the BTC network is currently âfresh.â This is the largest share of the whale Realized Cap that the STHs alone have occupied in the cryptocurrencyâs history. To put things into perspective, the 2021 bull run topped out at a value of 31%. The STH whales gain Realized Cap dominance through two means: a transfer of coins between members of the cohort at a higher price and selling from the LTH whales. LTH whales are the resolute hands of the market who hold out through volatile periods in wait for profitable exit opportunities. These smart-money investors usually ramp up their selling during bull runs and transfer their coins to new money coming into Bitcoin. As long as demand is high enough to absorb this distribution, the rally continues, but once capital inflows drop off, the asset hits a top. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Unlike LUNA & FTX Collapses, Says Glassnode: Hereâs Why So far, the growth in the STH whale Realized Cap share has maintained, but it only remains to be seen how much room is still left. BTC Price Bitcoin has been struggling to recover since Fridayâs crash as its price is still trading around $111,400. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Bull Run Coming To An End: Cycle Peak Countdown Signals 99.3% Completion
After a turbulent few days, Bitcoin (BTC) has resumed its downtrend, currently retracing toward $111,000. This marks a 12% decline from its recent peak of $126,000, which raises concerns among market experts who suggest that the bull run may be closer to its end than many investors believe. End Of Bitcoin Bull Cycle Within Nine Days? On October 14, market analyst CryptoBirb, took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to assert that the bullish cycle is nearing its conclusion, stating that it may end within the next nine days. He referenced the Cycle Peak Countdown indicator, which suggests that Bitcoin is 99.3% through its current cycle, having lasted 1,058 days. According to CryptoBirb, this final stage is characterized by a âtextbook shakeout of weak hands,â a common pattern observed before market peaks. Related Reading: Tether Resolves Celsius Lawsuit With Major $300 Million Settlement Deal CryptoBirb emphasized that October 24 serves as a critical target date, just nine days away, and labeled the recent crash as âright on schedule.â He further explained that the market is deep within the peak zone, with 543 days elapsing since the last Bitcoin Halving, exceeding the historical peak window of 518 to 580 days. The sentiment in the market also appears to have shifted dramatically, with the Fear & Greed Index plummeting from 71 to 38, indicating a reset from fear to euphoria. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also dropped from 67 to 47, suggesting that this emotional washout may create an ideal launchpad for a final euphoric surge. However, technical indicators show mixed signals: while the Average True Range (ATR) has expanded to 4,040, indicating higher volatility, the RSIâs position at 47 suggests a reset momentum. What On-Chain Metrics Suggest Institutional investors have also begun to shift their strategies, as evidenced by recent Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) flows, which reversed from $627 million in inflows to $4.5 million in outflows. Ethereum ETF outflows reached $174.9 million, indicating that smart money is taking profits before retail investors potentially fear of missing out (FOMO) in. CryptoBirb asserts that this behavior aligns with a classic distribution-to-accumulation transition. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Holders Left In The Dark: Monad Protocol Faces Scrutiny Over MON Airdrop On-chain metrics reflect a cooling market, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) dropping to 0.522 from 0.556, and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) declining to 2.15 from 2.45. These profit-taking actions may be creating the necessary space for a final euphoric push. When examining Octoberâs performance, Bitcoin is down 2.09% month-to-date, contrasting sharply with its historical average of a 19.78% increase. This underperformance could actually be a bullish sign, suggesting that a significant move may still be on the horizon in the final weeks of the month. In summary, the current cycle appears to be 99.3% complete. It has already spent 25 days in the peak zone and experienced a reset in sentiment and institutional distribution, as well as weak performance in October. However, if the analystâs thesis proves right, this blending could turn into a perfect storm for a final surge before entering a new crypto winter. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Newbie Bitcoin Whales Now Control 44% Of Realized Cap, Highest Ever
On-chain data shows the short-term holder Bitcoin whales have recently increased their Realized Cap share to the highest level ever. Bitcoin Is Currently Being Dominated By New Capital In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the share of the Bitcoin whale Realized Cap held by the short-term holders. The Realized Cap here is an on-chain indicator that measures, in short, the total amount of capital that the BTC investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. Changes in this metric reflect the incoming or outgoing of capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retests STH Cost Basis Again: Is This Where Support Flips? In the context of the current topic, the Realized Cap of only a portion of holders is of interest: the whales. These are the entities carrying more than 1,000 BTC (about $111.4 million) in their balance. Whales can be further broken down into cohorts on the basis of holding time. Whale-sized holders who bought their coins within the past 155 days are known as the short-term holder (STH) or new whales. Similarly, those who have a holding time higher than this cutoff are called the long-term holder (LTH) or old whales. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows how the Bitcoin Realized Cap dominance of these two groups has changed over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, new whales have rapidly gained ground in the Bitcoin Realized Cap recently and hit a dominance of 44%. The STH whales represent the big-money capital that has come into the coin over the last 155 days. Thus, it would appear that 44% of the capital stored on the BTC network is currently âfresh.â This is the largest share of the whale Realized Cap that the STHs alone have occupied in the cryptocurrencyâs history. To put things into perspective, the 2021 bull run topped out at a value of 31%. The STH whales gain Realized Cap dominance through two means: a transfer of coins between members of the cohort at a higher price and selling from the LTH whales. LTH whales are the resolute hands of the market who hold out through volatile periods in wait for profitable exit opportunities. These smart-money investors usually ramp up their selling during bull runs and transfer their coins to new money coming into Bitcoin. As long as demand is high enough to absorb this distribution, the rally continues, but once capital inflows drop off, the asset hits a top. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Unlike LUNA & FTX Collapses, Says Glassnode: Hereâs Why So far, the growth in the STH whale Realized Cap share has maintained, but it only remains to be seen how much room is still left. BTC Price Bitcoin has been struggling to recover since Fridayâs crash as its price is still trading around $111,400. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin Bull Run Coming To An End: Cycle Peak Countdown Signals 99.3% Completion
After a turbulent few days, Bitcoin (BTC) has resumed its downtrend, currently retracing toward $111,000. This marks a 12% decline from its recent peak of $126,000, which raises concerns among market experts who suggest that the bull run may be closer to its end than many investors believe. End Of Bitcoin Bull Cycle Within Nine Days? On October 14, market analyst CryptoBirb, took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to assert that the bullish cycle is nearing its conclusion, stating that it may end within the next nine days. He referenced the Cycle Peak Countdown indicator, which suggests that Bitcoin is 99.3% through its current cycle, having lasted 1,058 days. According to CryptoBirb, this final stage is characterized by a âtextbook shakeout of weak hands,â a common pattern observed before market peaks. Related Reading: Tether Resolves Celsius Lawsuit With Major $300 Million Settlement Deal CryptoBirb emphasized that October 24 serves as a critical target date, just nine days away, and labeled the recent crash as âright on schedule.â He further explained that the market is deep within the peak zone, with 543 days elapsing since the last Bitcoin Halving, exceeding the historical peak window of 518 to 580 days. The sentiment in the market also appears to have shifted dramatically, with the Fear & Greed Index plummeting from 71 to 38, indicating a reset from fear to euphoria. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also dropped from 67 to 47, suggesting that this emotional washout may create an ideal launchpad for a final euphoric surge. However, technical indicators show mixed signals: while the Average True Range (ATR) has expanded to 4,040, indicating higher volatility, the RSIâs position at 47 suggests a reset momentum. What On-Chain Metrics Suggest Institutional investors have also begun to shift their strategies, as evidenced by recent Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) flows, which reversed from $627 million in inflows to $4.5 million in outflows. Ethereum ETF outflows reached $174.9 million, indicating that smart money is taking profits before retail investors potentially fear of missing out (FOMO) in. CryptoBirb asserts that this behavior aligns with a classic distribution-to-accumulation transition. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Holders Left In The Dark: Monad Protocol Faces Scrutiny Over MON Airdrop On-chain metrics reflect a cooling market, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) dropping to 0.522 from 0.556, and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) declining to 2.15 from 2.45. These profit-taking actions may be creating the necessary space for a final euphoric push. When examining Octoberâs performance, Bitcoin is down 2.09% month-to-date, contrasting sharply with its historical average of a 19.78% increase. This underperformance could actually be a bullish sign, suggesting that a significant move may still be on the horizon in the final weeks of the month. In summary, the current cycle appears to be 99.3% complete. It has already spent 25 days in the peak zone and experienced a reset in sentiment and institutional distribution, as well as weak performance in October. However, if the analystâs thesis proves right, this blending could turn into a perfect storm for a final surge before entering a new crypto winter. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com