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Following a slight slump yesterday from its recent highs, Bitcoin (BTC) is now trading in the low $120,000 range. Meanwhile, BTCâs miner correlation has undergone a significant shift over the past few months, indicating a clear change in market dynamics between miner behavior and price direction. Bitcoin Miner Correlation Turns Negative According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, fresh data from Binance shows that Bitcoin price and miner flows to the crypto exchange have undergone a significant shift in recent months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Are Back: Three Indicators Suggest A Run Toward $130,000 Specifically, the 30-Day Rolling Correlation indicator has tumbled to its lowest level since March 2025. On October 3, this indicator fell to -0.157, its lowest reading in more than five months. Since then, it has remained close to the -0.10 range. For the uninitiated, the 30-day rolling correlation indicator measures how closely two variables, such as Bitcoinâs price and miner flows, move together over the past 30 days. A positive value means they typically rise or fall in tandem, while a negative value means they move in opposite directions. It is worth noting that the indicator had previously been moving within a positive range of 0.1 to 0.5 during Q2 2025. The shift from positive rage to negative suggests that the recent surge in BTC price has not been driven by miner flows to exchanges. This is in stark contrast to previous cycles, where miner flows to exchanges played a key role in BTCâs price movement. However, the current cycleâs positive price action can be attributed to increased demand from investors and institutions. Arab Chain added: In past cycles, when the price rose, miners often transferred larger amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges to sell and take profits, creating a positive correlation between price and miner flows â meaning that as prices increased, flows also increased. Arab Chain added that the decline in correlation indicates a phase of âprice independenceâ where miners opt to hold their BTC rather than sell it during times of price appreciation. A fall in miner signal is usually considered a bullish signal, as it reduces BTCâs circulating supply. That said, if the correlation turns strongly positive again, it could signal the return of selling pressure and a medium-term price correction could be expected. At present, the BTC market is showing a healthy balance between demand and supply. BTC Needs To Defend This Level Following BTCâs fall to the low $120,000 range, some crypto analysts say that the top cryptocurrency must defend the $120,600 level to avoid further crash. However, not all analysts are bearish on BTC just yet. Related Reading: $140K Or Bust? Simulation Says Bitcoinâs Odds Are Now 50-50 For instance, crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes predicts that US President Donald Trump could send BTC to $250,000 by the end of 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $121,375, down 0.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Bitcoin Range-Bound Near $121K, But Massive Inflows Hint at Breakout Toward $130K
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding a tight range around $121,000â$123,000 after tapping a fresh all-time high near $126,000 earlier this week. Under the surface, demand remains robust as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged an eighth straight day of net inflows, with one session alone adding $441 million. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Might Never Drop Below $100,000 Again Over the past week, cumulative ETF net flows have climbed by billions, pushing total Bitcoin ETF assets toward $160 billion. This steady pipeline of capital, now a fixture of pension funds, RIAs, and asset managers, continues to soak up more BTC than miners create, tightening free float and muting deeper pullbacks. The setup reinforces Bitcoinâs evolving role as a portfolio diversifier and inflation hedge, especially as the U.S. dollar wobbles and macro uncertainty lingers. Technical Levels Point Bitcoin (BTC) to $117K Support, $125Kâ$126K Ceiling After the spike to new highs, BTC is digesting gains in a sideways band. $125,000â$126,000 remains the near-term ceiling; a decisive daily close above that zone would likely unlock momentum toward $128,000â$130,000 and extend price discovery. On the downside, $117,000 is developing as the first key support, aligning with a heavy cost-basis cluster and prior breakout structure. A deeper fade could probe $114,000 near the 50-day moving average, where trend buyers may re-engage. Momentum indicators are neutral-to-constructive (RSI mid-zone, MACD flattening), consistent with healthy consolidation above rising MAs. Traders are watching for: Spot-led strength over derivatives (cleaner advances). ETF inflows staying positive (supports dips). Range break above $126,000 on expanding volume (bullish confirmation). BTC's price records losses on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Scarcity Meets Institutional Liquidity Bitcoinâs post-halving issuance of 450 BTC/day collides with institutional demand thatâs arriving âon scheduleâ via ETFs, creating a structural supply deficit. Year to date, institutional accumulation has outpaced new supply many times over, a dynamic that historically precedes trend extensions. Add in the dollar-debasement narrative, stubborn inflation, rising debt, and policy ambiguity, and credibly scarce assets like BTC and gold remain in favor. Related Reading: $200 Million Rescue Plan: TRUMP Meme Coin Fights For Survival With net inflows recurring and macro tailwinds intact, a range break toward $130,000 looks increasingly plausible in Q4, provided $117,000 holds on dips and $125,000â$126,000 gives way on a high-volume push. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin Range-Bound Near $121K, But Massive Inflows Hint at Breakout Toward $130K
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding a tight range around $121,000â$123,000 after tapping a fresh all-time high near $126,000 earlier this week. Under the surface, demand remains robust as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged an eighth straight day of net inflows, with one session alone adding $441 million. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Might Never Drop Below $100,000 Again Over the past week, cumulative ETF net flows have climbed by billions, pushing total Bitcoin ETF assets toward $160 billion. This steady pipeline of capital, now a fixture of pension funds, RIAs, and asset managers, continues to soak up more BTC than miners create, tightening free float and muting deeper pullbacks. The setup reinforces Bitcoinâs evolving role as a portfolio diversifier and inflation hedge, especially as the U.S. dollar wobbles and macro uncertainty lingers. Technical Levels Point Bitcoin (BTC) to $117K Support, $125Kâ$126K Ceiling After the spike to new highs, BTC is digesting gains in a sideways band. $125,000â$126,000 remains the near-term ceiling; a decisive daily close above that zone would likely unlock momentum toward $128,000â$130,000 and extend price discovery. On the downside, $117,000 is developing as the first key support, aligning with a heavy cost-basis cluster and prior breakout structure. A deeper fade could probe $114,000 near the 50-day moving average, where trend buyers may re-engage. Momentum indicators are neutral-to-constructive (RSI mid-zone, MACD flattening), consistent with healthy consolidation above rising MAs. Traders are watching for: Spot-led strength over derivatives (cleaner advances). ETF inflows staying positive (supports dips). Range break above $126,000 on expanding volume (bullish confirmation). BTC's price records losses on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Scarcity Meets Institutional Liquidity Bitcoinâs post-halving issuance of 450 BTC/day collides with institutional demand thatâs arriving âon scheduleâ via ETFs, creating a structural supply deficit. Year to date, institutional accumulation has outpaced new supply many times over, a dynamic that historically precedes trend extensions. Add in the dollar-debasement narrative, stubborn inflation, rising debt, and policy ambiguity, and credibly scarce assets like BTC and gold remain in favor. Related Reading: $200 Million Rescue Plan: TRUMP Meme Coin Fights For Survival With net inflows recurring and macro tailwinds intact, a range break toward $130,000 looks increasingly plausible in Q4, provided $117,000 holds on dips and $125,000â$126,000 gives way on a high-volume push. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview