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Bitcoin Faces Potential 50% CrashâBut Analysts Say The Fear Is Overblown
Bitcoinâs recent wobble has split analysts. Some warn of a deep pullback while onchain trackers point to a mild correction that could already be ending. Related Reading: XRP On Fire: Over 21,000 New Wallets Appear In 48 Hours Traditional Analysis Shows Risk According to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGloneâs post on X, the move under $100,000 may not be finished. He called a fall from recent highs a possible âSpeed Bump Toward $56,000,â and said that past rallies often reverted toward the 48-month moving average, now near $56,000. That view implies the potential for a sharp drop â almost 50% from recent peaks â if the current downtrend keeps going. Short, stark statements from established market commentators have pushed concern among some investors. Onchain Signals Point To A Milder Decline Reports have disclosed data from Glassnode and XWIN Research Japan that paint a different picture. Bitcoin slipped to $99,000 on Nov. 4, the first time in over four months it fell below the $100,000 mark, but it later recovered to around $101,500, according to Coingecko. $100,000 Bitcoin â a Speed Bump Toward $56,000? âLook at the chartâ has been a mantra from Bitcoin bulls, but the market gods can refresh humility when prices stretch too far. Synonymous with humility is mean reversion, and my look at the chart shows how normal itâs been for the⊠pic.twitter.com/ijzJ8L4SjT â Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) November 6, 2025 Onchain measures such as the Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, have dropped to ranges that in the past marked local lows. Glassnode highlighted the Relative Unrealized Loss metric, which currently sits at 3.1%. Readings at this level have historically matched mid-cycle corrections rather than full-blown bear markets. The firm noted losses under a 5% threshold have tended to be orderly revaluations, not panic-driven sell-offs. Bitcoin: Long-Term Forecasts Are Being Recalibrated Based on reports from ARK Invest, Cathie Wood trimmed her long-term Bitcoin projection by $300,000. She had earlier predicted a $1.5 million top by 2030; the cut implies a new peak target around $1.2 million. Wood said competition from stablecoins in emerging markets is reducing some demand for Bitcoin as a store of value. The move shows that even long-term bulls are adjusting assumptions as the market shifts. Related Reading: âGood Newsâ Finally Arrives For SHIB Army As Team Unveils New Update Market sentiment is being tested by numbers and by narrative. Short-term price swings have been large, but some key onchain indicators remain within ranges that have not signaled extreme stress. At the same time, notable analysts and venture leaders continue to warn of much deeper retracements. Investors are left to weigh technical patterns, blockchain metrics, and evolving views on demand drivers like stablecoins. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin Faces Potential 50% CrashâBut Analysts Say The Fear Is Overblown
Bitcoinâs recent wobble has split analysts. Some warn of a deep pullback while onchain trackers point to a mild correction that could already be ending. Related Reading: XRP On Fire: Over 21,000 New Wallets Appear In 48 Hours Traditional Analysis Shows Risk According to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGloneâs post on X, the move under $100,000 may not be finished. He called a fall from recent highs a possible âSpeed Bump Toward $56,000,â and said that past rallies often reverted toward the 48-month moving average, now near $56,000. That view implies the potential for a sharp drop â almost 50% from recent peaks â if the current downtrend keeps going. Short, stark statements from established market commentators have pushed concern among some investors. Onchain Signals Point To A Milder Decline Reports have disclosed data from Glassnode and XWIN Research Japan that paint a different picture. Bitcoin slipped to $99,000 on Nov. 4, the first time in over four months it fell below the $100,000 mark, but it later recovered to around $101,500, according to Coingecko. $100,000 Bitcoin â a Speed Bump Toward $56,000? âLook at the chartâ has been a mantra from Bitcoin bulls, but the market gods can refresh humility when prices stretch too far. Synonymous with humility is mean reversion, and my look at the chart shows how normal itâs been for the⊠pic.twitter.com/ijzJ8L4SjT â Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) November 6, 2025 Onchain measures such as the Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, have dropped to ranges that in the past marked local lows. Glassnode highlighted the Relative Unrealized Loss metric, which currently sits at 3.1%. Readings at this level have historically matched mid-cycle corrections rather than full-blown bear markets. The firm noted losses under a 5% threshold have tended to be orderly revaluations, not panic-driven sell-offs. Bitcoin: Long-Term Forecasts Are Being Recalibrated Based on reports from ARK Invest, Cathie Wood trimmed her long-term Bitcoin projection by $300,000. She had earlier predicted a $1.5 million top by 2030; the cut implies a new peak target around $1.2 million. Wood said competition from stablecoins in emerging markets is reducing some demand for Bitcoin as a store of value. The move shows that even long-term bulls are adjusting assumptions as the market shifts. Related Reading: âGood Newsâ Finally Arrives For SHIB Army As Team Unveils New Update Market sentiment is being tested by numbers and by narrative. Short-term price swings have been large, but some key onchain indicators remain within ranges that have not signaled extreme stress. At the same time, notable analysts and venture leaders continue to warn of much deeper retracements. Investors are left to weigh technical patterns, blockchain metrics, and evolving views on demand drivers like stablecoins. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView