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Bitcoin Sharpe Signal Slips Into Negative Territory â More Pain For BTC?
The price of Bitcoin has struggled so far in the month of November, briefly falling below the psychological $100,000 level twice already. Although the flagship cryptocurrency appears to be in a state of calm this weekend, a recent on-chain evaluation shows the possibility of more price corrections in the short term. Bitcoin Risk-Adjusted Returns See Growing Downturn In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, data analytics platform Arab Chain revealed that there seems to be a growing amount of risks for Bitcoin market participants on Binance. This on-chain observation revolves around the Bitcoin Sharpe Signal metric on Binance, which tracks the efficiency of the returns relative to the risks taken by investors on the worldâs largest crypto exchange. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Price Bottom In? Latest On-Chain Data Suggests So For context, a high or positive reading from this metric indicates that investors are getting good rewards for the risks they take on. Contrarily, a low or negative reading suggests the predominance of volatility over returns â a typical sign of waning investor confidence. According to Arab Chain, the Sharpe Signal has recently fallen to a negative value of about -0.277. Whatâs interesting is, this occurred around the same period when Bitcoin saw a decline to the $101,747 level. This indicates what the analyst described as âa clear decline in the quality of risk-adjusted returns on Binance.â Prior to this decline in the Sharpe Signal, the Binance network had consistently seen values above 0.2 â a period of âreward-over-riskâ between July and September. It is worth mentioning that this period also coincided with a run of relatively positive momentum for the Bitcoin price. Outlook For Bitcoin Price Regardless of the weakening Sharpe Signal, Arab Chain explained that a full-scale capitulation is not necessarily what is in play. At the moment, there appears still to be a relatively stable amount of trading volume. This means the current decline is not directly being driven by liquidations or impulsive sales. Instead, it suggests less involvement of institutional investors. As a result, the market may just be experiencing a temporary correction or âcooldownâ phase, as is expected after major price rallies. In a case where risk remains relatively higher than the rewards (more negative or sustained negative Sharpe Signal readings), the Bitcoin price could see more correctional movement, especially in the short term. However, the Bitcoin market could quickly see a local price bottom formation if the Bitcoin Sharpe Signal on Binance ascends into the positive region. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $101,750, reflecting no significant price change in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Cathie Wood Trims Her 2030 Bitcoin Price Prediction To $1.2 Million â Hereâs Why Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Big Bitcoin Holders Are Selling, But Few Buyers Are Stepping In As Demand Weakens
Bitcoinâs price has struggled to maintain stability above $102,000 in recent days, and data shows this is due to an apparent imbalance between selling pressure and fresh demand. On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that while long-term holders have been actively taking profits, the market is showing limited capacity to absorb their sell-offs. This is a contrast to previous phases of the bull run, where rising demand was able to offset increased long-term holder activity. Related Reading: XRPâs Price Doesnât Match Its Growing Real-World Use, Study Finds Rising Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Mirrors Past Bull Cycles Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, which was initially shared by Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, shows an interesting change in dynamics among Bitcoin holder activity that could shape the cryptocurrencyâs next move. Julio Moreno explained that long-term holder (LTH) selling is a normal pattern in bull markets as investors take profits when Bitcoin approaches or surpasses all-time highs. The CryptoQuant data shows that the 30-day sum of LTH spending, represented by the purple line in the chart image below, has been increasing since early October. This behavior follows previous bullish rally phases, such as those seen in early and late 2024, when profit-taking coincided with expanding demand, and so Bitcoin pushed to new record prices. The chart accompanying Morenoâs post shows green areas representing periods of positive apparent demand growth and red areas indicating contraction. During January to March 2024 and November to December 2024, LTH selloffs occurred as demand expanded. Bitcoin Long-term Holder Spending Since October 2025, however, that trend has reversed. Even as LTH selling increased, demand has entered a red zone, showing that the marketâs ability to absorb this selling pressure has weakened. This has coincided with Bitcoinâs struggle to sustain its position above $102,000, suggesting that price growth might be losing momentum. Sustained Weak Demand Could Delay Next Rally Moreno noted that the critical factor to watch isnât just the volume of long-term holder sell-offs but whether demand growth can keep pace. When demand is strong, the influx of supply from long-term holders often drives healthy consolidation before another price surge. In contrast, when demand falls behind, the result tends to be prolonged corrections or sideways movement. A large portion of that demand now comes from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen a sharp slowdown in inflows. Data from SosoValue shows that US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended last week with net outflows of $558.44 million on Friday, November 7, one of the largest single-day outflows in weeks. Related Reading: Get Ready â The End Of November Will Be Massive For XRP, CEO Says Unless Bitcoinâs apparent demand begins to recover in the coming weeks and LTH sell-offs continue, then this might continue to weigh on price action and postpone the next leg of Bitcoinâs rally. In this case, we might continue to see Bitcoin consolidating between $101,000 and $103,000 for the rest of November. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $101,655, down by 0.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin Sharpe Signal Slips Into Negative Territory â More Pain For BTC?
The price of Bitcoin has struggled so far in the month of November, briefly falling below the psychological $100,000 level twice already. Although the flagship cryptocurrency appears to be in a state of calm this weekend, a recent on-chain evaluation shows the possibility of more price corrections in the short term. Bitcoin Risk-Adjusted Returns See Growing Downturn In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, data analytics platform Arab Chain revealed that there seems to be a growing amount of risks for Bitcoin market participants on Binance. This on-chain observation revolves around the Bitcoin Sharpe Signal metric on Binance, which tracks the efficiency of the returns relative to the risks taken by investors on the worldâs largest crypto exchange. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Price Bottom In? Latest On-Chain Data Suggests So For context, a high or positive reading from this metric indicates that investors are getting good rewards for the risks they take on. Contrarily, a low or negative reading suggests the predominance of volatility over returns â a typical sign of waning investor confidence. According to Arab Chain, the Sharpe Signal has recently fallen to a negative value of about -0.277. Whatâs interesting is, this occurred around the same period when Bitcoin saw a decline to the $101,747 level. This indicates what the analyst described as âa clear decline in the quality of risk-adjusted returns on Binance.â Prior to this decline in the Sharpe Signal, the Binance network had consistently seen values above 0.2 â a period of âreward-over-riskâ between July and September. It is worth mentioning that this period also coincided with a run of relatively positive momentum for the Bitcoin price. Outlook For Bitcoin Price Regardless of the weakening Sharpe Signal, Arab Chain explained that a full-scale capitulation is not necessarily what is in play. At the moment, there appears still to be a relatively stable amount of trading volume. This means the current decline is not directly being driven by liquidations or impulsive sales. Instead, it suggests less involvement of institutional investors. As a result, the market may just be experiencing a temporary correction or âcooldownâ phase, as is expected after major price rallies. In a case where risk remains relatively higher than the rewards (more negative or sustained negative Sharpe Signal readings), the Bitcoin price could see more correctional movement, especially in the short term. However, the Bitcoin market could quickly see a local price bottom formation if the Bitcoin Sharpe Signal on Binance ascends into the positive region. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $101,750, reflecting no significant price change in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Cathie Wood Trims Her 2030 Bitcoin Price Prediction To $1.2 Million â Hereâs Why Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Big Bitcoin Holders Are Selling, But Few Buyers Are Stepping In As Demand Weakens
Bitcoinâs price has struggled to maintain stability above $102,000 in recent days, and data shows this is due to an apparent imbalance between selling pressure and fresh demand. On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that while long-term holders have been actively taking profits, the market is showing limited capacity to absorb their sell-offs. This is a contrast to previous phases of the bull run, where rising demand was able to offset increased long-term holder activity. Related Reading: XRPâs Price Doesnât Match Its Growing Real-World Use, Study Finds Rising Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Mirrors Past Bull Cycles Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, which was initially shared by Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, shows an interesting change in dynamics among Bitcoin holder activity that could shape the cryptocurrencyâs next move. Julio Moreno explained that long-term holder (LTH) selling is a normal pattern in bull markets as investors take profits when Bitcoin approaches or surpasses all-time highs. The CryptoQuant data shows that the 30-day sum of LTH spending, represented by the purple line in the chart image below, has been increasing since early October. This behavior follows previous bullish rally phases, such as those seen in early and late 2024, when profit-taking coincided with expanding demand, and so Bitcoin pushed to new record prices. The chart accompanying Morenoâs post shows green areas representing periods of positive apparent demand growth and red areas indicating contraction. During January to March 2024 and November to December 2024, LTH selloffs occurred as demand expanded. Bitcoin Long-term Holder Spending Since October 2025, however, that trend has reversed. Even as LTH selling increased, demand has entered a red zone, showing that the marketâs ability to absorb this selling pressure has weakened. This has coincided with Bitcoinâs struggle to sustain its position above $102,000, suggesting that price growth might be losing momentum. Sustained Weak Demand Could Delay Next Rally Moreno noted that the critical factor to watch isnât just the volume of long-term holder sell-offs but whether demand growth can keep pace. When demand is strong, the influx of supply from long-term holders often drives healthy consolidation before another price surge. In contrast, when demand falls behind, the result tends to be prolonged corrections or sideways movement. A large portion of that demand now comes from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen a sharp slowdown in inflows. Data from SosoValue shows that US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended last week with net outflows of $558.44 million on Friday, November 7, one of the largest single-day outflows in weeks. Related Reading: Get Ready â The End Of November Will Be Massive For XRP, CEO Says Unless Bitcoinâs apparent demand begins to recover in the coming weeks and LTH sell-offs continue, then this might continue to weigh on price action and postpone the next leg of Bitcoinâs rally. In this case, we might continue to see Bitcoin consolidating between $101,000 and $103,000 for the rest of November. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $101,655, down by 0.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView